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Conservative News | Strongsville Republican Club

Conservative News

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Doug Jones wins: ‘You took the right road’ (Roy Moore: ‘It’s not over’)

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 23:31

This one took a while to call, but Democrat Doug Jones has pulled off an upset in Alabama, defeating Roy Moore by about 10,000 votes:

BREAKING NEWS: Fox News projects Democrat Doug Jones will defeat Republican Roy Moore in Alabama’s special election race for the U.S. Senate. https://t.co/vS3z9keSt3 pic.twitter.com/43eACQ725T

— Fox News (@FoxNews) December 13, 2017

The NY Times, with 98% of precincts reporting, has the race at 639,088 votes for Jones to 629,749 votes for Moore. That works out to 49.5% to 48.8%. There was also a substantial write-in vote of 22,400. That’s double the amount needed to close the gap between the candidates. Here’s the announcement on Fox News including some discussion of whether or not there is a silver lining for the GOP in this loss, i.e. not having to spend all of 2018 defending Roy Moore

As I’m typing this, Jones is giving his victory speech saying, “Tonight ladies and gentlemen, you took the right road.” Jones is sounding like someone who won a straight up race against a tough opponent, not a freak election against a fatally wounded candidate in the midst of a national reassessment of sexual harassment and assault. President Trump, who endorsed and campaigned for Moore, has reacted surprisingly graciously to Jones’ win.

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 13, 2017

The NY Times is giving Trump credit for keeping Moore in the race but ultimately it wasn’t enough to overcome the accusations:

National Republican officials abandoned Mr. Moore’s campaign. Yet after it appeared that Mr. Moore remained viable, Mr. Trump offered a Thanksgiving week defense of the candidate and urged Alabamians to oppose Mr. Jones.

Mr. Trump’s intervention helped stabilize Mr. Moore’s campaign. When the president made the case for the Republican’s candidacy at a Friday rally in Gulf Coast town of Pensacola, Fla., just over the Alabama line, Mr. Jones’s campaign saw their internal polling advantage dissipate…

Mr. Moore, instead of facing questions about his alleged sexual abuse, largely vanished from the campaign in the race’s last week. He returned to Alabama for a rally in the rural, southeast corner of the state on Monday with Stephen K. Bannon, Mr. Trump’s former chief strategist.

Here’s Doug Jones’ victory speech. I’ll add Roy Moore’s concession speech once he delivers it.

Update: Roy Moore just gave a very brief speech quoting Psalm 40 and saying it will take some time to resolve this election. If the divide between Moore and Jones is within 1/2 a percent, there is an automatic recount in Alabama. Currently, the divide is well over 1 percent. Here’s Moore’s brief speech (starting about 2 minutes into this clip) asking everyone to wait and let this “play out”:

The post Doug Jones wins: ‘You took the right road’ (Roy Moore: ‘It’s not over’) appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Alabamageddon

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 19:31

Seldom has an election with so many potential repercussions been so hard to predict. You know how it usually goes on election night: One candidate leads in most of the polls, or the polls are tight but the election’s being held in red or blue territory, so you have a sense of who’s likely to win. Not this time. Some polls show Roy Moore cruising to a 10-point win; at least one, from Fox News no less, shows Jones winning by 10. Democrats could turn out en masse due to disgust with Moore and a juicy opportunity for a Senate pick-up — or they could be swamped by Republicans, buoyed by Trump’s endorsement and eager to extend a middle finger to a political class that views Moore with contempt. There’s scandal in the mix and a Republican nominee who historically has run behind other Republicans, but there’s also an abortion-on-demand Democrat on the other side and a raft of news stories about how black voters don’t seem to be showing much interest. Plus it’s a special election, where turnout is always unpredictable, and it’s for a Senate seat, where polling is always a bit screwy even under the best circumstances. Anything can happen.

Which means the actual result will probably be something like Moore by six or seven points, just as everyone might expect under the usual laws of political gravity in Alabama. (Any other Republican would be expected to win by 20-25.) Data nerds have been tearing their hair out trying to get a sense of where things really stand given the hash of polling over the last few weeks. While no one is confident, the two Nates — Silver and Cohn — both seem to trust live-interview polls, where the respondent talks to an actual person, over automated ones, where the respondent talks to a machine. How come? For one big reason: Automated polls aren’t allowed to contact people on cell phones, and the cell-phone demographic tends to skew younger and more liberal than the general population. That means automated pollsters could be serially underestimating support for Jones. And in fact, when you compare the live-interview polls of Alabama taken this past month to automated polls, Jones does notably better in the former — including that blockbuster Fox News poll. Cohn:

In general, there are strong reasons to prefer the live-interview telephone surveys from The Washington Post and Fox News. They contact voters with cellphones; the automated pollsters call only voters with a landline. Several automated pollsters now supplement their samples with online data, but some of the automated pollsters in Alabama do not. This is a likely source of a fairly persistent Republican lean in landline-only automated surveys since the 2010 midterm election.

Another reason to prefer the live-interview polls: They tend to be higher-quality surveys, while many of the public automated polls are surprisingly inaccurate. This isn’t true of all automated polls — SurveyUSA, for instance, has long stood out as a notable exception. But many automated polls disclose little about their methodology, while others disclose just enough to reveal serious methodological shortcomings.

Automated polls also tend to get lower response rates than live-interview polls do, notes Silver, which means the sample may to some extent be self-selecting. Result: Whereas live-interview pollsters have a broad cross-section of the electorate, automated pollsters have to compensate for their lack of data from cell-phone users by weighting the demographics according to certain assumptions. If their assumptions are wrong, so is the result of the poll. All of that points to a better-than-expected showing for Jones tonight — although there’s a bigggggg catch. The one clear advantage automated polls have over live-interview ones is that there’s no shame involved in telling your preference to a machine. Given all the seamy scandal allegations about Moore lately, some voters may be telling live interviewers that they intend to vote for Jones when in reality they’re planning to vote for Moore. So maybe it’s Moore who’s set for a better-than-expected showing tonight.

See why this race is such a nightmare to predict?

As for repercussions, where to begin? The Senate math is the easy part and arguably the most trivial: A Jones win means McConnell’s majority shrinks to 51/49, making it that much harder to pass anything, but thanks to reconciliation and the end of the filibuster for judicial nominees the GOP can still do much of what it wants to do if it hangs together. A Moore loss would be a blow to Trump, though, as he’d have gone all-in for a scandal-stained populist in hopes of dragging him over the finish line and been rebuffed in the deep south, the second time in just a few months that a supposedly reliable state would have ignored his endorsement. (He backed Luther Strange in the primary, remember.) Moore losing would also be a setback for Steve Bannon’s project to replace Republican establishmentarians in the Senate with populist insurgents, as Moore’s failure would reinforce McConnell’s warnings that fringy candidates don’t deliver in the general election. Bannon will spin a defeat as he always does, by blaming “the swamp” for uniting against Moore, but after having gone to Alabama and rallied for Moore multiple times, a rejection by voters would damage his political cachet too.

And if Moore wins? The Bannonite populists will have established a beach-head in the Senate, making the unity of the caucus unpredictable going forward. McConnell will suddenly have a headache in what to do about an ethics investigation of Moore and possible expulsion. Any weird thing Moore says will be weekly fodder for the media to ask his colleagues whether they agree. Trump, meanwhile, will embrace him since Moore will have proved he’s a winner — always the most important quality in Trumpworld — despite the fact that he came closer to losing this race than either Strange or Mo Brooks as nominee would have. But here’s the main repercussion: Win or lose, Moore’s candidacy will deepen the divide on the right between populists and non-populists. If he loses the former will blame the latter for having knifed him in the back by refusing to be good soldiers for the party the way grassroots Republicans usually are for underwhelming establishment candidates. If he wins the latter will blame the former for having abandoned their sense of morals and electing a gay-hating accused child molester to the Senate for no better reason than that he wears Team Red’s jersey. There will be blood tomorrow no matter what happens tonight. Expect a few theatrical “I’m leaving this garbage party” declarations from whichever GOP faction ends up disgruntled by the outcome.

Reason enough to stay up and watch! Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Decision Desk HQ will have live vote totals, although you can keep track simply by watching the widget below:

And here’s the handy dandy live Twitter widget, which includes Hot Air/Townhall editors *and* a collection of some of the highest quality data nerds in media, tracking results. It’s as fast as cable news is in highlighting key trends in the results and often faster. Via Dem pollster Zac McCrary, Jones’s blueprint for an upset is simple if difficult: He needs to pile up mountains of votes in blue urban counties (Jefferson, Madison, Montgomery, and Mobile), hope that rural black voters turn out in greater than expected numbers in the Black Belt, and hit 35-40 percent or better in key red counties (Shelby, Morgan, Limestone, Morgan). I’m skeptical, but anything can happen.


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The post Alabamageddon appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

LAPD investigating accusation director Roman Polanski molested 10-year-old

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 19:01

As we prepare for Alabamageddon tonight, this seems like the perfect story to wrap up the day. The Los Angeles Times reports that the LAPD is investigating an allegation that director Roman Polanski molested a 10-year-old child in 1975:

The Los Angeles Police Department said it is investigating allegations that director Roman Polanski in 1975 molested a child when she was 10, even though the case cannot be prosecuted because the statute of limitations has expired.

Josh Rubenstein, the LAPD communications director, said the department is committed to investigating such claims because even if charges cannot be brought, the evidence could aid in the prosecution of other cases.

This investigation is not based on a new allegation. It is based on an allegation made in October by artist Marianne Barnard:

#RomanPolanski took photos of me naked & in fur coat on beach in Malibu, I was 10 yrs old. He went on from there. This ends now #ROSEARMY https://t.co/CXoABPSn6H

— Marianne Barnard (M) (@Marianne_M_B) October 13, 2017

The Daily Beast reported the details of the allegation in October:

At the impressionable age of 10, Barnard says she met Polanski in 1975 in Malibu for a photo shoot—where she was set to be covered, clad in a bathing suit while sitting atop a bed of rocks. During the shoot, she says that Polanski asked her to remove her top, and given her inexperience, she didn’t think anything of it. “First he was taking pictures of me in the bikini, then it was with the coat then he said take off the bikini top, which I was comfortable with as I was only 10 and I often ran around with no top on,” Barnard recalled

It was after he allegedly told her to remove her bottoms that she became wary of his motives. “But then he wanted me to take my bikini bottoms off—I started to feel very uncomfortable,” said Barnard, who realized her mother, who had accompanied her there, had stepped away from the shoot. “I don’t know where she went and I didn’t really register her leaving but she was no longer there. Then he molested me.”

That claim obviously hasn’t been fully investigated yet, but the LA Times has a refresher on what Polanski was convicted of doing:

In the transcripts of grand jury testimony in that case, Polanski’s victim, Samantha Geimer, said the director had given her some Champagne and a Quaalude and told her to take off her blouse. The 13-year-old said she was afraid of Polanski and repeated informed him she had to go home. She testified that he kissed her and that she told him to stop and to keep away. He pulled off her panties, started to have intercourse with her, then switched to anal sex when she told him she was not on the pill, according to the testimony transcripts.

Polanski was indicted on charges of rape, sodomy and furnishing drugs to a minor. But the victim’s family asked the district attorney’s office to spare her the trauma of testifying at trial. Polanski was offered a deal and pleaded guilty only to unlawful intercourse. He served 42 days in prison, where he underwent diagnostic testing. When he was released before formal sentencing, he fled.

So as we head into tonight’s election with similar allegations against Roy Moore, don’t forget that the progressives demanding Moore be denounced were celebrating Roman Polanski just 14 years ago. When Polanski was arrested 8 years ago in Switzerland (2009), over 100 Hollywood bigwigs signed a petition demanding he be released. The Hollywood set was firmly for child molesters before they were against them. Their sudden reversal on the seriousness of dealing with people accused of sexual assault really is remarkable. That’s not a reason to ignore credible allegations against anyone else, but it is a reason to point an laugh at progressives claiming they own the moral high ground on this issue.

The post LAPD investigating accusation director Roman Polanski molested 10-year-old appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Heroes: Meet the four cops that jumped on a bomb

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 18:31

Anthony Manfredini. Jack Collins. Sean Gallagher. Drew Preston. While the name of the Fumblewear Bomber will undoubtedly achieve infamy in the days and months ahead, these four Port Authority police officers deserve recognition beyond any achieved by a wannabe terrorist. Manfredini saw the explosion take place and called his colleagues to secure the suspect, and then discovered that the bomber had a second device.

They didn’t hesitate:

Manfredini was stationed just outside the corridor where the detonation occurred. He “saw the panic and commotion,” radioed for help and then entered the corridor with the three other officers, Nunziato said.

“They engaged the suspect, who was on the ground, they handcuffed him, they saw wires, cellphone. They made a split-second decision to actually get on top of him and restrain him, and [Manfredini] actually removed the device off of his person before he could further detonate it,” Nunziato said.

Nunziato praised the officers for their quick action. “It’s a split-second decision based on training. Training and having the moxie to get in there, to put your life on the line. … I’m extremely proud. They couldn’t have done it any better.”

He added: “Those four guys are heroes.”

That could have ended very differently for all five on the ground had the bomber been given the chance to try again — and for many others in the vicinity. Rather than back off and try to wait out the threat or shoot the perpetrator to end the threat, the four officers took the great personal risk to dismantle the bomb while keeping the terrorist alive for questioning.

We’re going to hear the name Akayed Ullah many, many times until he gets sentenced and put into penitential oblivion for twenty or more years. Let’s remember the four men who made sure that we don’t also have to recall a longer list of Ullah’s victims too — Anthony Manfredini, Jack Collins, Sean Gallagher, and Drew Preston.

The post Heroes: Meet the four cops that jumped on a bomb appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

MN governor: I’ll announce replacement for Franken tomorrow

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 18:01

Replacement? Al Franken hasn’t gone anywhere yet, and depending on what transpires tonight in Alabama, he might not go anywhere at all. Nevertheless, Minnesota governor Mark Dayton plans a news conference for tomorrow to announce his choice for an interim successor if and when Franken does leave the US Senate:

The Wednesday news conference will end days of speculation about whom Dayton would send to Washington and also whether the person intends to run for the office or be a caretaker until the special election in Nov. 2018.

Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, who has been a close confidante of Dayton since his 2010 election, has emerged as a leading contender, though questions have arisen about whether she would run for the office in 2018 and, if she wins, again for the full six-year term in 2020.

This might turn out to be moot if Roy Moore wins tonight and Franken decides to stick around, even for a little while. Franken might delay a resignation to force Republicans to expel Moore once he gets seated. What better way to rehabilitate his reputation, both at home and with progressives, than to challenge Moore’s standing in the Senate with his own self-deportation from the chamber? If Republicans never get around to expelling Moore — which isn’t a likely outcome — Franken will have scored enough points to make it through the end of his term, even with that Leeann Tweeden photograph haunting him and fellow Democrats.

Let’s not forget the precedent of former senator Larry Craig, who pledged to resign after his arrest for importuning at the Minneapolis Airport and then reneged. Specifically, Craig wanted to get due process in the Ethics Committee first, which sounds a little familiar. Even though the committee concluded that he had indeed committed the offenses to which Craig pled guilty — and that he had improperly used campaign funds to defend himself in the case — the Senate took no action to remove him. Resignations are not binding until they are fully executed.

In this case, that may overthink reality, though. Franken may not be thinking about sticking around at all, regardless of what happens tonight. Reportedly, Franken wants some time to wrap up a few issues and to ensure that his staff makes it through the holidays before potentially getting laid off. A quick appointment would negate the latter concern, so Franken could submit his formal resignation as soon as Dayton makes the appointment. Whoever it is will need Franken’s staff to come up to speed as quickly as possible anyway.

Assuming Franken does resign, who should Dayton appoint? Amy Klobuchar insisted yesterday that it doesn’t have to be a woman or someone of color, demands pressed by DFL activists her in the state:

There is major legislation that needs to be worked on regarding taxes, budgets and the farm bill “that would greatly help our state,” Klobuchar said. The children’s health care bill alone, she said, could almost erase the state’s budget deficit.

Asked about the appointment of a woman or a woman of color, Klobuchar said, “I think it’s really important that the person is qualified to do the work.” While there is a need for more female senators, “There are plenty of men and women who could fill the seat again.

“People should wait and see,” she said.

The problem for Dayton will be if Franken makes them wait and see whether he’s departing at all. That makes a Tina Smith appointment even more likely. Unlike most of the other potential candidates, Smith had no other plans to run for office next year. Neither Lori Swanson or Rebecca Otto can afford to twist in the wind and potentially miss the window for the 2018 gubernatorial race or other opportunities. Ditto for state legislators who might be on Dayton’s short list, and for current members of the House like Betsy McCollum and Keith Ellison.

Besides, the Wednesday choice for announcement gives a big hint that Dayton’s choosing a woman in these scandal-plagued times. Michael Brodkorb notes the optics in play:

Announcing his replacement for #mnsen tomorrow provides Gov. Mark Dayton and Democrats with a massive opportunity for a messaging contrast should Roy Moore win #AlabamaSenate today.

— Michael Brodkorb (@mbrodkorb) December 12, 2017

You bet it does. Assuming Franken leaves, that is.

The post MN governor: I’ll announce replacement for Franken tomorrow appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Senate GOP to meet tomorrow to discuss “next steps” on Roy Moore

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 17:31

For cripes sake. Must we really go through this charade after a year and a half of the party’s leadership trembling before populists? They didn’t oust Trump at the convention; they didn’t abandon him after the “Access Hollywood” thing; they haven’t confronted him about his freakishly unpresidential tweeting. They’re not going to suddenly catapult Roy Moore out of the Senate. Like I said earlier, even if McConnell has the will, he’ll never find a way. Trump and the White House would lean on Senate Republicans to deny him the 67 votes he needs.

Senate GOP plans to hold meeting tomorrow morning to discuss next steps if ROY MOORE wins #alsen, I'm told. McConnell discussed it at lunch today

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 12, 2017

They have to do something, I guess. Cory Gardner, the head of the NRSC, is on record saying Moore should be expelled and McConnell called on him to drop out of the race, saying that he believes Moore’s accusers. At a minimum an ethics committee investigation will be opened, just as it was for Al Franken, if only to save face. Lefty Benjy Sarlin thinks that could prove fruitful for Moore’s enemies as both he and the accusers would presumably give testimony under oath and new dirt might come out. But that assumes that the investigation would be conducted vigorously, which is … not in keeping with ethics committee precedent. And for all his hostility to Moore, McConnell might prefer that the committee *not* find anything new on him. Once the uproar over Moore’s win blows over, McConnell will want to move past it and try to stitch the party back together in hopes of passing legislation. A nasty fight a few months from now over the ethics committee’s findings on Moore will drag Trump into it, will get populists seething at the dreaded establishment again, will distract Congress from its next project — all bad developments in a midterm year.

But what can McConnell do to excommunicate Moore short of expelling him? CNN has some ideas:

Republican leaders won’t commit to giving Roy Moore a seat on any Senate committee if he wins Tuesday’s race for the Alabama seat, a highly unusual move showcasing internal tensions between the controversial candidate and his prospective colleagues…

Being denied a committee assignment could significantly undercut Moore’s ability to be effective in the Senate. It would deny him the ability to work on legislation and attend hearings with witnesses about policy matters, alienating him in a body that already has revolted from him in the aftermath of allegations of sexual misconduct, including with minors.

Two advantages to that: It’s less draconian than expulsion, obviously, which would make it less schismatic, and it could be decided among Senate Republicans without any 67-vote threshold. What happens, though, once Steve Bannon starts complaining about Moore being marginalized and Trump inevitably starts tweeting things how it’s “not nice!” to deny him committee assignments? And if there’s not enough evidence against him to justify expulsion from the Senate for misconduct, why should Moore be denied any committee seats? It can’t be that the accusations against him both have and haven’t been proved true to the satisfaction of his colleagues. Either they’re true or they’re not and he’s a member in good standing or he isn’t. And McConnell’s going to run up against soon-to-be familiar arguments, namely, that the alleged misconduct here occurred years before Moore was elected and Alabamians were fully aware of the allegations and rendered their own verdict on them. On what basis should their representative lose committee power, then?

Lefty Zephyr Teachout argued in an op-ed today that it’s time to take misconduct investigations out of the hands of the toothless ethics committee and empower an outside agency to carry them out. She recommends giving GAO the authority. I like the idea of handing sexual offenses by congressmen over to a body that’ll take them more seriously but we’re kidding ourselves if we think Congress will relinquish power over its own membership to some newly deputized HR department that’s beyond its control. As for Moore, *maybe* McConnell will give him some probationary period in which he’s not named to any committees immediately but will end up on some eventually if he plays nice with leadership. Personally I hope he gets a seat on the Judiciary Committee, as it’d be fun to see a guy who was kicked off the bench twice for refusing to follow higher-court rulings lecturing others on the rule of law.

And watching him grill Trump’s next SCOTUS nominee about whether gays should be locked up would be a hoot.

Does Roy Moore think that homosexual conduct should be illegal?

Roy Moore campaign spokesman: “Probably.”https://t.co/syuQfsAvO5 pic.twitter.com/nPDYLfQahY

— The Lead CNN (@TheLeadCNN) December 12, 2017

The post Senate GOP to meet tomorrow to discuss “next steps” on Roy Moore appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Obamacare enrollment expected to lag as Friday deadline approaches

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 17:01

Friday is the deadline for 2018 enrollment on the federal Obamacare exchange. States which run their own exchanges, like California, are keeping the enrollment period open longer (the end of January in California’s case). But the enrollment numbers are clearly shaping up to be a downturn from last year and Republicans and Democrats are already casting blame. Politico reports:

“There’s a clear relationship between increasing premiums and decreasing enrollment,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), co-sponsor of a GOP plan to replace the Obamacare in part with block grants to states. “We’re losing people who don’t get subsidies. That’s the reason we’ve got to do something about it.”…

“The reality is the Trump administration is constantly doing somersaults to try to find ways to dissuade people from enrolling,” said Senate Finance Committee ranking Democrat Ron Wyden of Oregon, who on Tuesday joined his counterpart on the Senate HELP Committee, Patty Murray, in calling on the administration to extend the enrollment period from Friday until Jan. 31…

As of Dec. 2, just over 3.6 million Americans had signed up for coverage on the federal exchange HealthCare.gov, and more than 2 million enrolled through state-based marketplaces. That’s about 15 percent ahead of last year’s pace, according to independent analyst Charles Gaba, who runs the website acasignups.net.

However, Gaba projects that final 2018 enrollment will likely top off around 10 million nationwide — roughly 20 percent lower than both 2016 and 2017, when sign-ups topped 12 million.

Gaba is a supporter of the law but his estimates have been pretty accurate over the past several years. You can check his math here. He’s predicting around 7.5 million enrollees on the federal exchange and we could have those numbers next week. Obviously, the final numbers for the independent state exchanges will take longer since they don’t close until next month.

And don’t forget that every year we’ve done this there is a drop-off, between those who select a plan and those who actually pay their first premium, of 10-12 percent. So if the final tally is 10 million nationwide, that would likely drop to 9 million or less within a month or so.

None of this will have much impact on the people getting subsidies, which are the vast majority of people buying on the exchanges. Where it will matter is when insurers start to think about whether to stick around for 2019.

The post Obamacare enrollment expected to lag as Friday deadline approaches appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Three Pinocchios for Pelosi on Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 16:31

As with most things these days, it started with a tweet. After the House passed their version of the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act, the former Speaker of the House (now Minority Leader), Nancy Pelosi expressed her displeasure by going on social media and informing everyone that the Republicans were once again trying to unleash drooling hordes of criminals and dungeon dwellers on the nation armed to the teeth.

Inviting violent criminals to carry concealed weapons doesn’t save lives
Inviting domestic abusers to carry concealed weapons doesn’t save lives
Inviting convicted stalkers to carry concealed weapons doesn’t save lives

Yet the @HouseGOP just voted to do exactly that #StopCCR

— Nancy Pelosi (@NancyPelosi) December 6, 2017

Inviting violent criminals to carry concealed weapons doesn’t save lives. Inviting domestic abusers to carry concealed weapons doesn’t save lives. Inviting convicted stalkers to carry concealed weapons doesn’t save lives. Yet the @HouseGOP just voted to do exactly that.”

Anyone who is even marginally familiar with the legislation knows that those accusations are completely in the realm of fantasy. The bill deals with the rights of people who have qualified for a concealed carry permit through the normal legal channels, not criminals. In fact, the whole idea is to ensure that the rights of law-abiding gun owners are protected while keeping guns out of the hands of those who commit crime. Not surprisingly, the tweet received thousands of likes and positive comments from liberals who support the entire gun grabbing agenda and heaps of scorn from Second Amendment advocates.

What was truly surprising and almost gratifying was when the Washington Post’s “fact checker” Glenn Kessler received enough requests that he actually decided to put the tweet to the test. What followed was a lengthy examination of not just the tweet, but elements of both the House and Senate versions of the bill as well as input from sources on both sides of the issue. For at least digging into the question we should salute Mr. Kessler.

Unfortunately, while Pelosi’s statements were obviously off base, if you give Glenn enough paragraphs to tear something apart (at least when it’s said by a Democrat) he’ll keep tunneling until he can find a kernel of information which might be spun to lend it some validity. We’ll swing back to that in a moment.

After no less than 22 paragraphs of analysis, background and opinions, he finally rendered his verdict.

Pelosi’s tweet focuses on a possible loophole in the law and then uses inflammatory language such as “inviting.” …

We wavered between Two and Three Pinocchios but ultimately settled on Three because her last line — “the @HouseGOP just voted to do exactly that” — is so over the top and exaggerated. One can have a respectful political debate, raising the issue of a lower common denominator for concealed-weapons permits, without accusing the other side of voting to let violent criminals and stalkers have guns.

Three Pinocchios? Not bad since we’re talking about Nancy Pelosi, but note that Glenn actually says he wavered back and forth between two and three. I’m not even sure where she got the benefit of the doubt to qualify for three instead of four, say nothing of two. So where did the benefit of the doubt come from here? The full article goes into great detail about how, “in theory, under the proposed legislation, a person who was denied a permit in his home state could seek a permit from another state to carry in his or her own state.”

The problem here is that Kessler himself points out all of the categories of persons who are denied gun ownership at the federal level no matter what state law says and it covers pretty much everyone. Since Pelosi went on about violent criminals, domestic abusers and convicted stalkers and the fact check is being done on her tweet, it has to be one of those. Glenn mentions those categories in this short paragraph. (Emphasis added)

The laws can vary among states. Federal law prohibits people with felony convictions from obtaining guns, as well as persons convicted of domestic violence misdemeanors, or by persons subject to a restraining order involving actual or threatened violence against an intimate partner. Federal domestic abuse law can prohibit current or former spouses, co-parents and current and former co-habitants from possessing guns. If a state makes a stalking crime a felony, that would also be prohibited under federal law. But some states have broader definitions of domestic violence disqualifiers, such as boyfriend or girlfriends.

Was that it? If one state doesn’t extend a “stalking” law (not including cases where there was actual or even threatened violence, which are already covered at the federal level) far enough out among acquaintances while another state does include that scenario, then a permit holder from the first state might conceivably travel through the second state? That’s what he’s hanging his hat on to consider going so far as only giving Pelosi two Pinocchios?

That’s being generous in the extreme, though I suppose we should have expected it. While it’s a scale from a different fact-checking source, this was obviously a Pants on Fire bit of mendacity on Pelosi’s part and any reasonable observer would recognize that.

The post Three Pinocchios for Pelosi on Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Jim Acosta: Sarah Sanders threatened to ban me from WH photo ops if I asked Trump a question — but I did anyway

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 16:01

Something stupid to make you laugh before the knives come out tonight on all sides over the Alabama results.

See what I mean about CNN alternately treating itself as a fearless soldier for truth and a whimpering child bullied by the president as circumstances require? Acosta, the network’s most preening grandstander, is almost *glowing* at his own supposed bravery in ignoring an empty threat from Sarah Huckabee Sanders to shout a question at Trump at a photo op that the president didn’t bother to answer. It’s very important to him that you know that he was warned not to ask his question and he did anyway. Important enough to mention it during his limited airtime in chatting with Wolf Blitzer.

But just in case any of his Twitter fans weren’t in front of a TV at the moment, he beamed it out on social media too.

Prior to this morment, @presssec issued a warning to me. She said if I asked a question of Trump at the bill signing "I can't promise you will be allowed into a pool spray again." Sorry Sarah.. we won't be intimidated. https://t.co/RZgJpXpyEg

— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) December 12, 2017

He’s so proud of himself, but then he always is. His question must have involved a matter of momentous urgency too to risk being barred from future White House events. Was it about North Korea? Russiagate and obstruction of justice? The report in today’s New Yorker claiming that Trump has all but accepted Assad’s continued tenure as leader of Syria for the duration of his presidency?

Nah. He asked what Trump meant in his tweet about Kirsten Gillibrand when he said she’d do anything for a campaign contribution. His one shot at putting POTUS on the spot with a tough question in front of the cameras was essentially to ask if he was calling a woman senator a whore. Trump, had he chosen to answer, obviously would have said, “Of course not,” making the question worthless as news but valuable if your goal is to show the audience how righteously furrowed your brow is. Jim knows how to play the cable-news game.

And because of that, he’ll never be barred from any White House photo ops. He craves media martyrdom at Trump’s hands and Sanders must know it. Banning him for asking Trump a question would be tantamount to throwing him into the briar patch, giving him that much more time to go on CNN every afternoon and shake his head sadly at What America Has Come To because he’s no longer allowed to posture at big presidential events.

The post Jim Acosta: Sarah Sanders threatened to ban me from WH photo ops if I asked Trump a question — but I did anyway appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Today’s hot topics: Alabamageddon; Update: Cancelled

HotAir - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:31

Update: Unfortunately, technical issues on my end wound up making today’s show impossible. My apologies to viewers and to Andrew and Jazz, too.

Today on The Ed Morrissey Show (4 pm ET), we have another great lineup for the news of the day! The show will be streamed on Hot Air’s Facebook page and embedded here and on the show page for those who are not on Facebook. (If it’s muted, right-click the video and choose Unmute.)

Join us as we welcome:

  • Andrew Malcolm joins us for Tuesdays with Andrew! The Prince of Twitter and I will discuss all of the hot political stories of the day. And is there any bigger story today than Alabama’s special election? We’ll cover that, and also discuss Andrew’s column at McClatchy on Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as part of his “radical pattern” on diplomacy.
  • Jazz Shaw joins me at the top of the hour to return the topic to Alabama and update us on developments!

The Ed Morrissey Show and its dynamic chatroom can be seen on the permanent TEMS page. Be sure to join us, and don’t forget to keep up with the debate on my Facebook page, too!

How can Republicans and conservatives keep the momentum going? Find out in GOING REDpublished in April from Crown Forum!

The post Today’s hot topics: Alabamageddon; Update: Cancelled appeared first on Hot Air.

Categories: Conservative News

Putin Visit to Egypt Proves Why Trump Must Be a Realist

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:26
Tom Rogan, DC Examiner
We need to pick winners, and sometimes, winners are nasty.
Categories: Conservative News

Putin Declares Victory in Syria

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:26
Robin Wright, The New Yorker
Despite the deaths of as many as half a million people, dozens by chemical weapons, in the Syrian civil war, the Trump Administration is now prepared to accept President Bashar al-Assad’s continued rule until Syria’s next scheduled Presidential election, in 2021, according to U.S. and European officials. The decision reverses repeated U.S. statements that Assad must step down as part of a peace process.
Categories: Conservative News

The Pundits Were Wrong About Assad and ISIS

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:26
Abrahms & Glaser, Los Angeles Times
The rollback of Islamic State must come as a shock to those who spent years insisting that such progress would never happen without toppling the regime of Bashar Assad.
Categories: Conservative News

A Constitutional Crisis Is on the Way

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:26
Paul Waldman, American Prospect
Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is circling the Oval Office, and the closer he gets, the more agitated President Trump and his defenders become. In response, they've begun an all-out assault on Mueller, one that could well result in Trump firing him. It's more than obvious that Trump wants to do so; the only question is how long the relatively sane people around him who appreciate the consequences of such a move can hold him back.
Categories: Conservative News

Real Collusion Was Obama DOJ and Clinton Campaign

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:25
Andrew McCarthy, FOX News
As I understand it and as Comey testified to a closed session, according to The Wall Street Journal as then FBI director Comey testified to a closed session of the House Intelligence Committee in March, the reason they hadn't brought any case against Flynn at that point was because the agents that interviewed him believed him and that was [Peter] Strzok. So the fact that Flynn ended up pleaded guilty to lying in that interview was not Strzok's idea. Evidently, Strzok was not pushing that. That was the very aggressive Mueller investigators toward the end.
Categories: Conservative News

I'm Not Convinced Franken Should Quit

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:23
Zephyr Teachout, New York Times
I care passionately about #MeToo. Women are routinely demeaned, dismissed, discouraged and assaulted. Too many women’s careers are stymied or ended because of harassment and abuse. In politics, where I have worked much of my adult life, this behavior is rampant.
Categories: Conservative News

Can We Be Honest About Women?

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:23
D.C. McAllister, The Federalist
Here's a little secret we have to say out loud: Women love the sexual interplay they experience with men, and they relish men desiring their beauty.
Categories: Conservative News

The Republican Party's Reality Problem--and Ours

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:22
Ezra Klein, Vox
In Alabama, 71 percent of Republicans say they believe the allegations against Roy Moore are fabricated. In Washington, President Donald Trump believes he “won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally” (he didn’t), that he had “the biggest Electoral College win since Ronald Reagan” (nope), that his inauguration crowds were the largest ever (they weren’t), and that virtually any information he dislikes is “FAKE NEWS!”
Categories: Conservative News

The New Media Standard: Too Anti-Trump to Check

Real Clear Politics - Tue, 12/12/2017 - 15:21
Rich Lowry, New York Post
The media’s errors over the last week haven’t been marginal or coincidental, but involved blockbuster reports on one of the most dominating stories of the last year — Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. And they all slanted one way — namely, toward lurid conclusions about the Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with the Russians.
Categories: Conservative News
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